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Forex Trading - News and analysis on the GB
At the last meeting of the Bank of England, the pound has a certain degree of relief as the Bank decided not to pursue rumors of measures to reduce the deposit rate for banks that had their central bank reserves.
Today, however, the Bank confirmed that it is considering making such a move and GBP had a very successful against the wider market swoon all the way down to 1.6500 against the dollar and sending EUR / GBP to a new one from June.
The aim of such a move is to jump start lending banks, which are accumulating capital as they try to repair their balance sheets and all types of assets that still contain ugly. The pound yesterday was very weak with little or no news flow and one has to ask whether someone was in the know in advance - very suspicious.
In any case, the pound has been very consistent inthe Forex market to react to every movement the Bank of England during this part of the cycle.
Let's see if EUR / GBP paid to the 200 day moving average around 0.8885, to just above today's high so far .. This settlement in GBP / USD has been more detrimental to the upward trend - see the chart today. Meanwhile, home prices number of RICS balance was much better than expected and suggested that more agents are seeing real increases instead of falling prices in the housing market.
The RBA statement at its last meeting earlier this month was much less severe than expected, suggesting that a hike in October, the market was trying to price in little premature. The minutes released at night to confirm that the trigger finger of the RBA is less itching at the time, trying to avoid "premature hardening.
It's a little surprising to see AUD not bite a little down in history and the last, unless the data that make the Australian economy. It seems that Australian operators are following the movement in risk appetite in equities (lined up new highs yesterday) and gold, which recently topped the 1000-a sign of a dollar an ounce.
Yellen of the Fed came out with a discourse severe on the economy and warned that the risk of deflation is greater than the risk of inflation. It is recommended that the administration do more to support growth employment. Meanwhile, Obama is going a bit in limbo, holding that job losses are "bottoming out". Meanwhile, the treasury is taking into account Download share Citibank significant benefit (if you can obtain current market prices). Now if that isn'ta sign that the rally in stocks has gone too away, we'd like to know what is?
The German ZEW was bored with the current conditions index remains quite horrible, even if the expectations of the survey notched a marginal new high for the cycle. This survey is a symptom of the kind of hope that is out there for a recovery show strong and suggest optimism is already priced here. The component has exceeded expectations out about 70 three times in the last ten years and we are already almost all the way to the "top" after a minimum at -60 notable in October 2008. It's great if it becomes reality to be so rosy, but gives contemplate fear disappointed if the future is boring.
U.S. Data was much stronger than expected in the headlines and saw the paradoxical re3action of heading USD weaker after the data (USD moves inversely related to risk appetite, blah blah ....), but not convincingly. This is being getting a little silly - if the U.S. is actually in recovery mode, then this should eventually be positive for the dollar.
As for the details internal sales data for retail, it seems that much of the strength out of the cars and gas was due to return to school (Shopping force in clothing, goods Overall, book and sporting goods stores). U.S. PPI rose more than expected and bonds are selling largely push USD / JPY to new highs on the day. The JPY will be very sensitive to any additional sales of discount bonds. 91.75/92.00 seen as a key area of resistance for this pair.
More Forex Trading Analysis Moody's again yesterday to haunt the British Treasury. Almost six months after the rating agency downgraded the sovereign Debt nations, who returned yesterday with a warning that the country will be in negative territory for the next year and a half. With all the whispers about the true state of the UK economy, as seen by the public and private, while the stabilization of view as a young, independent auditors Moody's appears to have undermined political efforts to paint a brighter image.
The result of this effort was a decline in all areas of the pound, What has not acted as badly as might have been after the congressional corruption scandal in the summer. In fact, British lawmakers have been little seen in television or newspapers for that matter, keep a low profile to avoid any control, moreover, that could bring back the call for a House of Review of Commons. To this end, including the Treasury, Alistair Darling and Prime Minister Gordon Brown has been less than visible light from the scandal - only speak when necessary and not really say much when they do.
Not surprisingly, Moody's found that the economy was in poor condition and are forecasting the immediate future bleak. With record unemployment, the manufacture and export of up to 50 year minimum, the cost of commodities and a significant increase increase from poverty to middle class level, the fact that they are in trouble. However, my opinion of the fate of the pound in relation to the current economic climate is bold, by all accounts, in contradiction with the report by Moody's. Here's why:
I think the pound is one of the more fairly valued currencies market of Forex Trading out there right now because of gold. The UK spent hundreds of years, pillage and plunder nations in the world to all the natural resources it could find, especially gold. So the last 60 years has seen the British return the land they occupied, the offers do not include the treasures. The UK has by far one of the largest collections of gold reserves, next to the Vatican, of course, and the price of this precious metal has risen beyond $ 1000 per ounce last week.
Even if the economy goes into depression two years, the value of the pound may be stable on the basis of its reserves. I'm not a fan of British economic policy and I think the ease with which citizens have gone on spending funds helped rescue plans to their situation, but must respect the almighty Sterling - it has for a long time, and for a long time, worth every penny (or should I say quid?).
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